Editor's Note:

As the year 2024 has just begun, how the world will develop this year and in the near future has captured the attention of people around the globe. At the "International Relations Forecast - Re-exploring the Inertia of History" conference held on Saturday in Beijing, organized by the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, over 10 international relations experts shared their views on the prediction of future international relations between China, the US and other major countries and regions. This is the excerpt of the opinions of four scholars.

Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University:

Future forecasts of international relations should particularly consider the increasing trend of populism, especially in Western countries that proclaim liberalism. Over the past decade, the US has led the way in undermining liberalism, engaging in economic "decoupling," and disrupting the international norms established after the Cold War. Populism will have a mainstream impact on the foreign policies of major countries, with some European nations already beginning to follow this trend.

With the mainstream dominance of populism, the influence of constructivism and liberalism on international behavior is expected to decline significantly. Analyzing from a realist perspective, there will be an increasing trend of international cooperation turning into confrontation. It will become increasingly challenging for the world economy to develop positively, and the cooperation between China and the US in trade and economics may not see a continuous upward trend.

Furthermore, the current competition is shifting toward the area of technology. In future strategic competitions, not only between China and the US but also between China and Japan, China and Europe, and the US and Europe, the core focus will be on technology rather than ideology. Subsequently, national competition strategies will undergo changes, and in our predictions for the next 10 years, we must pay more attention to the impact of advancements in digital technology.

Diao Daming, professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China:

I believe that, regardless of the results of the 2024 US presidential election, the US will not change its strategic position in competition with China, and the strategic game between China and the US will persist. 

The US is expected to have mediocre economic performance in the next 10 years, accompanied by escalating domestic contradictions. By the 2040s, the demographic structure of the US will undergo a significant transformation into a state without a majority ethnic group, leading to the complete abandonment of the national creed of uniting the nation. This will usher in a prolonged adjustment phase.

Additionally, China's total economic output is projected to surpass that of the US before 2050, and the two countries will enter an intersecting phase in terms of data significance. After 2028, it is anticipated that China and the US will eventually enter a stage of stalemate, where cooperation and competition become the norm. The world will not witness a bipolar state. Instead, different power structures will emerge in different fields and on different issues.

Sun Chenghao, fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University:

If the Republican Party is in power, the US will adjust the focus of its competition with China. While emphasizing domestic demand, it will intensify the portrayal of the so-called China threat, combining internal difficulties in the US with competition against China. 

The Republicans may extend their reach into issues such as education, crime and technology, and the economic momentum toward "de-risk" may shift back toward "decoupling."

Second, the Republicans will differentiate themselves by adopting a tough stance. They may add new points of risk game against China, and extreme policy options against China could be used to appease right-wing conservatives internally. 

Third, the continuity of communication channels between China and the US will face uncertainties. Cooperation between China and the US may find it difficult to gain more impetus at the federal level, and the positive forces of communication may sink more to the local and civilian levels.

She Gangzheng, associate professor in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University:

I personally believe that the behaviors of smaller countries, including those in the Middle East, will be significantly influenced by the competition among major powers. However, in the context of the technological competition in this digital age, the actions of these smaller countries will, in turn, serve as a strategic hedge, influencing and constraining major powers.

In the future, even if there is a considerable power disparity between countries, it may not necessarily translate into a corresponding disparity in terms of power. The mainstream viewpoint currently suggests that as the pressure from the competition between China and the US intensifies, the pressure on smaller countries to take sides will also increase, and their room for choice will diminish. However, I believe this follows a cold war logic and not the logic of the digital age. In the future, the space for these smaller countries to take sides may remain unchanged or even expand.

Chinese premier says China adheres to opening-up policy no matter how world situation changes

Chinese scientists have recently achieved ultra-low temperature refrigeration without the use of liquid helium, which is expected to have great application prospect in multiple high-tech fields such as deep space exploration, quantum technologies and materials science. The research result has been published in the scientific journal Nature.

Ultra-low temperature refrigeration using liquid helium was invented over a century ago, and has widely been used in national security and strategic high-tech areas such as deep space exploration, quantum technologies, materials science and large-scale research facilities. 

However, due to the relative scarcity of helium in nature, it has become an important challenge within the scientific community to achieve ultra-low temperature refrigeration without using helium. 

Chinese researchers from several scientific research institutes including the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Physics and the Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, used a triangular-lattice cobaltate material to realize the helium-free cooling to a temperature of 94 millikelvin (minus 273.056 C) with frustrated quantum magnets, designating the effect as “giant magnetocaloric effect of spin supersolid.”

Supersolid is a quantum state exhibited by matter at very low temperatures approaching absolute zero (minus 273.15 C). 

Magnetocaloric effect (MCE) is a heating or cooling of a magnetic material when the applied magnetic field changes. MCE can be used for cooling and may offer larger efficiencies than a conventional vapor-cycle refrigeration.

According to the research published in Nature, supersolids are long-sought-after quantum materials with two seemingly contradictory features: a rigid solid structure and superfluidity. The triangular-lattice cobaltate material provides evidence for a quantum spin analogue of supersolidity, with an additional giant magnetocaloric effect — discoveries that pave the way for helium-free cooling to temperatures below 1 kelvin with frustrated quantum magnets. 

Su Gang, a professor from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, co-author of the research and one of the key individuals who proposed the triangular-lattice cobaltate material to the research team, told the Global Times on Sunday that the discovery of this new state of matter and its new effects represents a significant breakthrough in fundamental researches. 

It also provides a new solution to the challenging problem of ultra-low-temperature cooling in China’s cutting-edge research areas such as deep space exploration, quantum technology, and materials science, the Science and Technology Daily reported on Thursday.

Li Wei, a researcher from the Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, who proposed the triangular-lattice cobaltate material together with Su, said that the biggest challenge in the follow-up work is the research and development of new devices and refrigeration systems. 

According to Li, how to translate the laboratory’s achievements into practical uses and refrigeration systems, so as to provide extremely low-temperature environment and sufficient cooling capacity for deep space exploration or quantum computing, poses certain challenges in both scientific and engineering aspects. 

Reviews from Nature praised the research published on Wednesday, calling it a high-quality experiment and expecting that it will spark widespread research interest. 

Continuing a tradition that has lasted for 34 years, China's foreign minister has once again chosen Africa as the first foreign visit destination for the new year, and this time the visit will cover two countries in North Africa - Egypt and Tunisia - and two in West Africa - Togo, and Cote d'Ivoire - per the announcement of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Thursday.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's first overseas trip in 2024 will take place between January 13 to 18 at the invitation of the four African countries, Mao Ning, the spokesperson, said on Thursday. 

After his visit to Africa, Wang will visit Brazil and Jamaica from January 18 to 22, Mao said. 

Experts said this year's visit to the four countries highlighted China's heightened attention to the security situation in North Africa against the background of a potential spillover of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as China's willingness to cooperate with African countries despite its level of development. 

Mao noted that Wang's visit has carried on a fine tradition that has been kept for the past 34 years. The trip aims to promote the implementation of the outcomes of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Leaders' Dialogue, and coordinate with African countries on a new session of FOCAC to be held this year. 

At last year's FOCAC, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed three new cooperation initiatives to support Africa's industrialization, agricultural modernization, and talent development, which received an enthusiastic response from his African counterparts, Mao said.

The tradition of the Chinese Foreign Minister's annual first trip to Africa has highlighted China's emphasis on consolidating friendship with Africa. The relationship sets an example of what can truly be called "the establishment of a community with a shared future," Song Wei, a professor from the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Thursday. 

For the North Africa leg, the visit to Egypt highlights China's welcoming gesture to its officially joining the BRICS family.  BRICS inducted five new countries in January and they are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia.

Choosing to visit North Africa also reflects China's heightened concern over the security situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea, Song said. 

As tensions in the region continue to grow, it has threatened the safe passage of an important lifeline for the international economy, and risks a conflict spillover. "The current situation is extremely dangerous from both a political and economic perspective," Song said. "At such a point, Wang's arrival brings the hope of coordinating relations among regional powers, trying to resolve conflicts and restore stability to the world economy and politics."

For West Africa, there were several instances of turmoil and conflicts last year, including military coups. And compared to other regions in Africa, West Africa faces more severe development challenges, so Wang's visit to this region highlighted China's emphasis on security and stability in the continent, experts said. 

Cote d'Ivoire has relatively higher development levels in the continent, while Togo ranks as among one of the poorest countries in Africa, reflecting China's overall focus on Africa's development, Song noted. 

Wang Youming, director of the Institute of Developing Countries at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing, said China-Latin America relations have steadily progressed in the past few years, with a significant increase in trade volume, thanks to the structural advantage of a mutually beneficial economic complementarity. 

Despite recent political changes in Latin America, with at least five general elections coming up this year including in Mexico and Uruguay, there will be little impact on China-Latin America relations whichever ruling party wins, whether left-wing or right-wing, Wang Youming told the Global Times on Thursday. This is because as an important trading partner, China plays a crucial role in helping them overcome economic challenges.

China Harbour Engineering Co (CHEC), a subsidiary of China Communications Construction Co, recently won the bid for the dredging project of the entrance channel and port basins for the Simandou iron ore project, the world's largest undeveloped iron ore deposit, in Guinea.

The dredging project represents a significant operational achievement for CHEC in the Guinea market, as stated in its official WeChat account on Friday.

This project also signifies another step forward in the development of the high-grade iron ore project, involving joint participation between Chinese enterprises and their international partners.

The expansion and breakthrough in the Simandou project further strengthen CHEC's collaboration with major mining clients in Guinea, solidifying its competitive advantage in the hydraulic engineering market and providing robust support for ongoing development in the Guinea national market, according to CHEC.

The dredging project has a duration of 21 months and involves dredging the shared channels and port basins of the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), a consortium backed by Singaporean and Chinese companies, and the Anglo-Australian mining group Rio Tinto.

The channel spans 22.60 kilometers, with a bottom width of 250 meters and an approximate dredging volume of 21.57 million cubic meters, according to CHEC.

The successful bidding of the dredging project occurred just a few days after the reported successful blasting of the No. 5 road in the Simandou mining area, marking another important progress in the mining project.

The successful blasting of the mining project for the first time establishes a solid foundation for subsequent production operations and a series of mine development works.

Infrastructure development for the Simandou mining project is underway after the project officially resumed substantive development in March 2023, following a one-year suspension.

The iron ore project is being progressed in partnership with CIOH, a Chinalco-led consortium, WCS, Baowu, and the Guinean government.

Rio Tinto, one of the investors in Simandou, announced in December 2023 a detailed financial investment plan, revealing that the southern Simandou mining area is expected to commence production in 2025 and increase annual production capacity to 60 million tons within the next 30 months.

The potential total reserves of iron ore in this mine are approximately 10 billion tons, ranking it third globally after Australia and Brazil. Upon production, the annual output is projected to range from 100 million to 150 million tons, contributing to 5 to 7 percent of the world's annual production, according to a Caixin report.

For major public health emergencies that result in more than five deaths or critical cases, provincial health authorities must report to China's top health authority within two hours upon receiving the report, according to new medical emergency regulations released by the National Health Commission (NHC) on Monday.

The NHC released the trial regulation to clarify the mechanisms and processes for emergency medical responses to sudden incidents, and to standardize and efficiently carry out emergency medical rescues in order to avoid and reduce casualties and ensure people's safety and health.

When the casualty situation is not clear, the situation should be reported first, with specific casualties submitted later. Health administrative authorities below the provincial level can directly report to the NHC, while copying the higher-level health authorities. The NHC should promptly report to the State Council upon receiving the report, according to the regulation.

The drafting of the trial regulation was based on relevant emergency, medical laws, regulations and contingency plans, including the Emergency Response Law of the People's Republic of China, Basic Healthcare and Health Promotion Law and the national emergency response plan for public health emergencies, said the NHC.

The trial medical emergency regulation was released in a timely manner, providing clear guidance and assistance to medical institutions in dealing with sudden health emergencies, Lu Hongzhou, head of the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

For example, based on the Law on Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases and other relevant laws and regulations, infectious disease patients should be promptly transferred to designated medical institutions for treatment, Lu said.

The trial regulation standardizes the system of medical emergency information discovery and reporting, as well as the entire process of medical emergency disposal. It clarifies the work responsibilities of relevant departments and institutions.

The health authorities will establish a system for retroactive investigation and accountability in order to strengthen inspection and guidance and improve the timeliness and accuracy of reporting. For those units that report late, omit, lie, or conceal information, they shall be resolutely held accountable in line with relevant regulations.

It also clarifies the standards for on-site medical emergency disposal, injury classification, treatment of the injured and other facets. It stipulates the management of medical emergency teams and base construction, the establishment of a medical emergency expert database, the formulation of medical emergency plans, the reserve of medical supplies, training and drills and other areas as well.

The US and the UK's support for anti-China rioters exposed their ill intention to destabilize the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at Friday's regular press briefing, in response to the latest remarks by US and UK politicians regarding the issuing of arrest warrants for five fugitives that have fled the HKSAR to overseas.

China strongly deplores and firmly opposes certain countries' flagrant slandering against the national security law for Hong Kong and interference in the rule of law in the HKSAR, and the issuing of arrest warrants for the five fugitives is in line with international law and common practice, said Mao.

The National Security Department (NSD) of the Hong Kong Police Force said on Thursday that the police have put on the wanted list five individuals who have fled overseas and are suspected of having committed offences under the national security law for Hong Kong.

The five are Cheng Man-kit, Hui Wing-ting, Joey Siu, Fok Ka-chi and Choi Ming-da, according to the HKSAR.

The HKSAR government also on Friday strongly opposed and condemned certain countries' remarks on the issuing of arrest warrants for the five individuals.

The police issued arrest warrants of these five individuals according to the law, which is necessary and legitimate, said Mao. The national security laws of other countries including the US and the UK also have extraterritorial effect. These five individuals, under the pretext of "democracy" and "human rights," have engaged in activities that undermine China's national security, Mao said.

The Commissioner's Office of Chinese Foreign Ministry in HKSAR also expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition on Friday. The spokesperson from the Commissioner's Office said that the extraterritorial application of the national security law for Hong Kong is fully in line with the principles of international law and common practice, and is a necessary and justified measure to ensure Hong Kong's long-term stability and order.

Meanwhile, the 2023 Implementation Rules for Amending the Implementation Rules for Article 43 of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region took effect on Friday.

"The amendments are technical in nature and the scope of the proposed amendments is extremely narrow: it only aims at making clear provisions in respect of the validity period of freezing notice, without changing the basis or principle for issuing such notice," said a spokesperson from HKSAR on Friday.

The amendments can make sure that the freeze notice of property related to offenses under the national security law for Hong Kong remains valid until the legal proceedings conclude, according to the HKSAR.

Lawmaker Elizabeth Quat Pui-fan supports the revision of the implementation rules. The lawmaker told the Global Times on Friday that it can "effectively combat serious crimes that endanger national security."

Anti-China figures are still using various means to deny and evade their crimes that endanger national security. The anti-China forces in the US and the West are eager to continue stirring up trouble and messing up Hong Kong, the lawmaker emphasized.

Authorities are launching a direct strike against anti-China elements and those who disrupt Hong Kong, by pursuing the criminal acts of Jimmy Lai Chee-ying and his peers in accordance with the law and freezing their assets. They have brought this upon themselves and HKSAR is obligated to handle it in accordance with the law, Quat said.

It is necessary to uphold the rule of law in governing HKSAR, using legal means to maintain stability and uphold social justice, the lawmaker said.

Mao, the foreign ministry spokesperson, reiterated that Hong Kong affairs are purely China's internal affairs that brook no interference from any external forces. China maintains firm resolve in safeguarding the nation's sovereignty, security and development interests. Relevant countries should respect China's sovereignty and the rule of law in HKSAR and stop interfering in China's internal affairs, she said.

China's university swimming team concluded their seven-day FISU Games campaign on a high note on Monday as they tallied 18 gold and two bronze medals to sit atop the leader board in swimming.

Butterfly specialist Zhang Yufei remains the biggest contributor to China's medal haul as she scored gold medals out of all nine competitions in which she participated. 

Monday night saw her win two gold medals in women's 50 meters freestyle and 4x100 meters medley relay at the Dong'an Lake Sports Park Aquatics Centre.

The Southeast University student was participating in the FISU University Games back-to-back with the World Aquatics Championships, which ended on July 30, a day before the FISU swimming competition began.

"The University Games competition is more like training for me. Even though I'm tired, I have to wake up when I step into the arena. Regardless of my mental state, once I'm on the competition stage, I have to give my all and take the race seriously," Zhang told reporters. 

The 25-year-old threw all the gifts she received at the award ceremony to the audience on Monday. 

Zhang, also a two-time Olympic champion and a two-time world championship title holder, said she is trying to get used to participating in back-to-back tournaments.

"It can be exhausting joining back-to-back events like the World Championships, University Games and the upcoming Asian Games, but it's all about building myself up," she said. 

"A significant portion of my training is done on dry land. Through these exercises, I enhance my physical fitness to improve my ability to compete in multiple events. Since I will be participating in many events at the Olympics next year, I started preparing from this year, making multiple races a habit for myself," she added.

Distance freestyle specialist Li Bingjie, 21, representing Shanghai Jiao Tong University, also had to swim back-to-back after winning the 400 meters freestyle. 

The last swimmer in the women's relay, she was struggling to stand thus was carried by her teammates after the final as her efforts ended with China leading the second-place Poland team with a one-second-sharp lead. 

Li, a Tokyo Olympics gold medalist and six-time world championship medalist, totaled eight gold medals at the FISU Games, including a clean sweep in the women's 400, 800 and 1,500 meters freestyle.

Li has said that she hopes to narrow the gap between her and the world's most decorated swimmer, Katie Ledecky of the US, in the lead up to the Paris Olympics, but she insists that she will continue to focus on her own rhythm rather than following others.

"I've made mistakes in this aspect before, allowing others' pace to dictate my pace, which ended in the later stages with me losing control of myself," Li told reporters. 

"Now I primarily focus on swimming according to my own rhythm."

Also that night, the Chinese university men's 4x100 meters medley relay team, headed by breaststroke world champion Qin Haiyang, set a new FISU record of 3:32.58 seconds. 

Speaking about the physical fatigue of participating in back-to-back races, Qin emphasized the importance of mental relaxation.

"My primary focus after training is on relaxing my mind. Physical fatigue can be recovered through a good sleep, but mental relaxation is more crucial because training is usually quite intense," Qin, whose given name Haiyang means "ocean," told reporters. 

"As my journey into swimming was also a serendipitous process, I feel that there is a sense of destiny associated with swimming," Qin said, speaking about his given name.

Qin thanked the home audience for their continuing support to the team. 

"The spectators are truly enthusiastic," Qin Said.

"Only during home games can you hear such fervent cheers and shouts!"

Chinese digital art pioneer ULTILAND has released a new art project aimed at spreading the beauty of Chinese art in Hong Kong SAR. The autumn collection features contributions from 12 artists with diverse artistic backgrounds, including creators of Chinese contemporary abstract art, new media art pioneers, and cutting-edge artists working with mixed materials. Three key themes emerge from their autumn creations: warmth, connection, and eternity.

According to the founder of ULTILAND, art and technology have the power to connect people from different backgrounds.

In addition to the release of new artworks, ULTILAND also bridges the gap between the real and virtual worlds in the name of art, transcending the boundary between WEB2 and WEB3 through innovative narratives and creating new value mappings.

Looking ahead to future plans, ULTILAND intends to establish a main island and themed islands. These themed islands will be overseen by artists and collectors, serving as hubs for art subjects, art creations, and more.

A decade since the first North American Shaolin Cultural Festival in 2013, the Shaolin Temple is once again hosting an official cultural exchange event in the US. 

The highly anticipated "2023 North American Shaolin Games" and a series of martial arts-related activities are scheduled to take place in Los Angeles, the US, on November 11 and 12.

The announcement was made during a press conference held on November 7. 

Organized by the renowned Songshan Shaolin Temple in China, in collaboration with the Shaolin North American Association, the games are expected to serve as a platform for kung fu enthusiasts to show off their skills and promote the popularization of the ancient sport in North America. 

Approximately 500 Shaolin disciples from over 40 states in the US, as well as from countries ­including ­Canada and Mexico will ­participate in the events.

Shi Yongxin, the abbot of the Shaolin Temple, said at the press conference that Shaolin kung fu is famous all over the world. 

Kung fu not only strengthens the body, but also uses martial arts to achieve Zen and enlighten people through wisdom. 

The kung fu competition is a long-standing tradition at the Shaolin Temple, which aims to enable Shaolin disciples to study more diligently and constantly surpass themselves, according to Shi.

During the opening ceremony, dignitaries from various fields will witness the top performers in various categories. 

The 2023 North American Shaolin kung fu stars - the top three in each discipline - will receive medals, trophies, certificates, and accolades as encouragement.

According to Shi, the tradition of Shaolin kung fu competitions has flourished overseas since 2011. 

Events like the European Shaolin Cultural Festival and the North American Shaolin Cultural Festival all regard the Shaolin kung fu competition as core content.

In 2022, the Shaolin kung fu online competition continued this tradition, uniting 5,320 participants from 94 countries and regions across six continents. 

Before coming to the US in 2023, the Shaolin Games had already been held in Zambia in Africa, Singapore in Asia, and Argentina in Latin America.

Shi, leading the visiting delegation, arrived in Los Angeles on November 1 to kick off a series of North American visits. 

During his visit to San Francisco on November 7, he delivered a speech titled "Zen Meets AI" at Meta's headquarters. 

In his address, he emphasized that while AI possesses remarkable data processing and analytical capabilities, and may display similar human perceptions through programs and algorithms, but it cannot replicate the awakened consciousness advocated by Zen Buddhism. 

He encouraged human beings to seek inner wisdom and ­transcendence, even in the face of AI advancements.

According to Shi, Zen ­Buddhism emphasizes that Zen practitioners can gradually improve their state of enlightenment through their own efforts. 

As a tool, AI can search and find relevant classics to solve various doubts that Zen ­practitioners encounter, providing assistance and convenience to Zen practitioners.